“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham, former economist and investor
We hope 2026 is off to a good start for you and your family.
Over the past three weeks, the escalating military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has contributed to increased volatility in global markets, including a noticeable rise in oil prices. If sustained, higher oil costs can increase inflation, reduce consumer spending, and slow economic growth. You may have seen the extensive news coverage—and probably have noticed the change firsthand at the pump.
While staying informed is important and paying more for the same fuel is frustrating, much of today’s news coverage is designed to draw attention to short-term developments. However, taking a step back can offer helpful perspective. Although military conflict is something most of us hope to avoid, unfortunately it has been a recurring part of global history for centuries—particularly in the Middle East. Similarly, oil price spikes have accompanied many of these past conflicts, including the Gulf Wars, the Arab Spring, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Unlike fifteen years ago, the United States is now the world’s largest oil producer and only six percent of U.S. oil imports come from the Strait of Hormuz near Iran. This could help limit the impact of disruptions in domestic businesses. Even so, with midterm elections approaching later this year, the current administration will probably have a limited tolerance for a prolonged war that causes higher oil prices as consumers always vote with their wallets top of mind.
While no one can predict the specific cause or exact length of every short-term market fluctuation, we do know that volatility is a natural part of investing—and of life. It would not be unusual for this volatility to last for months, however diversified investors who remain patient have been rewarded throughout history. As challenging as it can be at times, we continue to believe in sticking to a thoughtful plan and not letting short-term uncertainty overshadow long-term opportunity.
Thank you for the trust you place in us and please reach out if you would like to discuss more or revisit your overall financial plan. Finally, we would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all current and former service members – many of them serving or have served overseas. Your dedication and sacrifice mean a great deal, and we are deeply thankful for all that you do.